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Art Flitter, human foreman of Warehouse 73B, after three years at his desk without having to do anything, began to suspect that the small sealed gift box included in his ‘Welcome to Warehouse 73B’ information packet handed to him on his first day on the job, with a note stuck on it saying, ‘Do not open for 30 years,' likely contained an inscribed gold watch thanking him for his 30 years of service and wishing him well in his retirement.
I swear, I thought that I'd never written a piece on AI before. I did know, however, that I had posted something using the robot/AI cartoons like the one above, so I searched down through my posts to see what I'd done, only to discover that I had, indeed, written a post about AI in July 2023. Rereading my 2023 piece, it seems like I've not changed my mind much, if at all. So this post covers much of the same ground as the previous one. But it also has a few different points as well. And having already spent several hours writing it, up it goes...
I recently watch a video on YouTube where an author, as a proof of concept, went through the entire process of creating an entire science fiction novel from scratch using AI. He had the AI generate the story idea then write the story, scene by scene. While it took an elaborate process with various checks and balances, and using several pro-level AIs, with some human proofreading to check for continuity, since the scenes were produced independently, the story it produced was good enough to be published, a big improvement from his results a year before.
So clearly, AI generated novels are possible, and will only get better. And a tidal wave of them is likely on the way. I think most readers will never notice the difference. Commercially successful books in genre fiction are usually, with a few exceptions, not great art. Good enough is all that is necessary to please most people. AI will soon become good enough.
Should writers be at all concerned? I don't think so. For most of us it will simply be business as usual. For one simple reason. Books sell largely on the basis of how many readers become aware of them. Quality may matter, but they have to come across them before quality first begins to matter. It doesn't really matter how good, or not, the AI novels will become, since, the market is already very over saturated. Even now, we're talking about 30,000 to 50,000 books released every month in the most popular genres on Amazon.
For the commercially successful writers, they too need not worry. If you can beat those odds, well, there's little different between too many books, and too too many books. They've already figured out how to deal with an over saturated market. Whatever works for best selling authors now will work just as well against ten or more times those numbers because they know how to reach their readers. Unless the generators of AI written books know their secret, all those books they turn out will never be seen, and thus never be sold. In short, AI publishers will still face the almost insurmountable odds of making a worthwhile amount of money as any independent publisher. And good luck with that.
When looking at the broader picture, I have no doubts many jobs are going to be eliminated by AI. Just Google a photograph taken in a factory at the turn of the last century and compare it to any one of today's factories. You will see that machines have all but replaced humans in manufacturing, arguably to our benefit.
Is art different or more important, than producing cars or toasters? Your call. Clearly however, capitalist don't see a difference. They see that creating all sorts of art will be more cost efficient and require smaller HR departments. It is simply a question of time, as they now have the machines needed to replace this set of human workers. This is what machines, and capitalists, have always done. And have done for centuries.
Nevertheless, we're told that machines can never truly create art. That AI will never replace human artists because, well to put in a simple phrase, AIs don't have souls, and all the attributes assigned to having one. If they can't replace human artists, why such outrage, such angst?
I don't think the discussion is really about art and creativity at all, even if they make it sound like it is. AIs are not a threat to any sort of art, as art
Let's be cynical realistic here; it's because AI threatens artists' incomes. This discussion, this angst, is not about art. It's about money. Art as a job. Anyone who doesn't need money to motivate them to create art can still be creative. AI doesn't effect making art at all. It affects making money from making art.
The real issue is that many commercial artists will have to get new jobs.
Now, looking for work sucks. I know this from experience. But it is also part of most everyone's life. So there's nothing new here. Artists can still do their art. All that may be changing in the coming decade is the opportunity to profit financially from doing their art.
And, well, we all know that money is the root of all evil, so one can make the case that AI is here to save artists from evil. Or at least compromised art for the sake of popular taste and commercial viability.
Also, on the positive side, many of these commercial writers and artists are, or soon will be using, AI as a tool to supplement and streamline their workflow and become more productive, while still being considered human artists. Good AI, not evil AI.
Bottom line for authors is that AI won't starve writers. The industry has been quite adept at starving them for centuries. Writers, and most other artists, are used to little pay for their creativity. Most of them already have to have, you know, real jobs, to make money. AI is going to eliminate jobs that produce art, which is sad, but that doesn't mean AI is eliminating art. It's just eliminating jobs. And, maybe, dreams.
Like it or not, replacing humans with machines pretty much defines capitalism and the march of progress. Arguably, it has made the lot of humans better. Will it continue to do so? Stay tuned.
Disclaimer
I use free Google Docs, Grammarly, and Scribbr online grammar tools to proofread my manuscript for typos, wrong words, and comma placement, to the benefit of my readers.
I use Google, Apple, and Amazon auto-generated narration for my audiobooks, giving my readers more options.
I don't use any Ai tools in either my writing or art. I do use the old school spell checker for my manuscripts and photo retouching tools in Gimp for my art - all aids that have been around for several decades.