Over the last couple of years I've gotten the impression science fiction isn't what it used to be in a number of different ways. This may simply be a reflection of my gradual disenchantment with the genre over the last few years. But I think there is something more in it. One aspect of this feeling is that, at least in traditional publishing, SF is both changing focus and slowly fading. I can't speak to the changes, as I've read only a few modern SF books, but it seems that many of the SF orientated YouTube channels and blogs only cover old, "classic" books from 20, 30, 40 plus years ago. It seems like fantasy is now the in read for fans of speculative fiction. Can I verify this?
Unless you're a publishing insider and have access to a lot more data than I do, this feeling can not be tested. At least directly. But I think I've found a way to compare the sales of the two genre, relative to each other.
So how do we compare SF sales to fantasy without knowing the figures?
We start with the fantasy author, Mark Lawrence, who is something of a numbers guy. He has asserted that there is a direct correlation between the number of ratings on Goodreads and the sales of a traditionally published book. He says that if you take the number of ratings for a recently published book on Goodreads, multiply it by 4, it will give you a ballpark figure as to the number of books sold. His blog post about that is here. He bases this relationship on the data he has from his books and other authors. People dispute this number, and it certainly doesn't seem to work for indie published books... At least from my experience. But I think the relationship between ratings and sales numbers is strong enough that one can compare ratings numbers to ratings numbers and get a useful comparison of relative sales. Good enough for our purposes, anyway.
Next, what books to we compare? Hundreds of books are published every year in SF and fantasy. How do you find and select books to compare? As it turns out, the Goodreads has just released its list of the Best Books of 2023. It features 20 books in both the SF and fantasy categories. Goodreads says that the books were selected by analyzing statistics from the millions of books added, rated, and reviewed on Goodreads and published in the last 12 months. The sample includes books from all types of publishers; traditional and indie publishers. This seems to me as valid a sample as any. For my analysis I used SF, fantasy, and romantasy (a mash-up of romance and fantasy). I did not use YA fantasy for my comparison, since I hadn't see that category until after I had done the table below. However, there is no YA SF category to compare it to, which, in itself, I think is telling.
On 16 November 2023W I sampled each of the 20 books in the three categories; SF, fantasy and romantasy. I recorded the number of ratings each book had at that time, plus the number of months each book had been on the market. I also noted the sex of the author, and the size of the publisher. I added up the total number of rating for all 20 books in each category. I then added up the collective number of months the books had been on the market. To get one figure to compare each category to, I divided the total number of ratings by the total number of months the books had been in the market to arrive at an average number of ratings-per month for the entire category. In my model, this number of ratings per month represents the relative sales of each of the three categories, which then can then be compared.
So what do the numbers say?
Romantasy was the most popular category, at least in this sample. First, all the books were written by female authors. It is romance, after all. One author, Jennifer L Armentrout, had three of the 20 books on this list. She must be both a popular and prolific author. One book however, Fourth Wing, by Rebecca Yarros, dominates this category in ratings, and presumably sales, with 719,631 ratings at the time I sampled it. (The number of ratings of all the books will have gone up by the time I release this post.) Large, Big 5 Publishers, released 4 of the books, with 3 coming from what I think are medium sized publishers. The rest were either indie published or came from small presses, making their ratings numbers all the more impressive for that.
Fantasy was dominated by books released by large publishers; 14 out of the 20, with 6 coming from medium sized publishers. No indie published books made this list. Women authors once again dominated, authoring 15 of the 20 selections. Hell Bent, by Leigh Bardugo, had the most ratings, 88,513, followed by Brandon Sanderson's Tress of the Emerald Sea, with 74,180 ratings. Martha Wells had a book in this category as well as one in SF.
Now, looking at SF, the book with the most ratings in SF was In the Lives of Puppets, by T J Klune, with 40,266 ratings. Martha Well's entry, System Collapse, a MurderBot story had just been released in Nov, so the ratings for that book only clocked in at 1,857. It is probably significantly higher now. This category featured 12 male and 8 female authors. As for publishers, 10 of the books in this category were published by large publishers, 2, medium, and 8 appear to have been indie or small press releases. I should also point out that the SF list includes books from five well known SF writers; Martha Wells, John Scalzi, Pierce Brown, Ann Leckie, and Adrian Tchikovsky, so that I don't think SF's best selling authors are under represented on the list. They may well be over represented.
Now on to the comparison;
Romantasy came in with an average of 9,940 ratings per month for the field of 20 books, largely thanks to Fourth Wing.
Fantasy clocked in at 3,815 ratings per month average for the 20 books.
Science Fiction trailed the pack with a 1,496 ratings per month average for their 20 books.
The combined categories had 43 female vs 17 male authors. 72% vs 28% US readership split is 64.3% female vs 35.7%, male, so the author to readership ratio is fairly reflective of the audience.
Using these figures, it would seem that fantasy outsells SF by more than 2 1/2 to 1, 72% vs 28%. For comparison, years ago when the Data Guy broke out Amazon sales numbers, I think the fantasy to SF ratio was more like 3 to 2 66% vs 33%. Fantasy was outselling SF even then. But using this data it would seem that since then fantasy's lead has only grown.
However, if we roll romantasy's average monthly ratings into the general fantasy, it is fantasy, after all, and divide that total by 2 to get an average of the combined fantasy categories, we get a monthly average of 6,877 ratings per month. Using this figure, fantasy outsells SF by 4 to 1, 82% vs 18% And remember, we're not counting YA fantasy in these comparisons, which I am quite certain, judging from my granddaughter, would make the sales ratio even more daunting.
You can discount these results, as you please. One might argue that SF readers are reading older SF titles, if SF booktube is any guide, not the 2023 titles, which this sample only includes, and thus this comparison may underestimate SF readership. Or that the total number of books published in each category are probably not equal, as they are in this sample, which could distort the result. No doubt true, but that likely works in fantasy's favor, as I am certain that publishers are publishing more fantasy than SF these days. And since we find indie published books in this sample, I think we have a pretty well rounded sample. While fantasy, has never entirely absent from speculative fiction, it played a minor role until the early 1970's when Lord of the Rings became popular. Clearly it has come a long way in the last 50 years.
Fashion rules the world. Everything comes into fashion, and then fades away, before returning again in a different guise. SF may rise again, or it may evolve and change into something unrecognizable. But for now, at least in books, SF seems to be falling out of favor with readers of the fantastic.
The data I used;
Title
|
Author
|
M/F
|
Ratings
Numbers
|
Pub.
|
Months on
Market
|
Romantasy
|
|
|
|
|
|
The
Jasad Heir
|
Sara
Jasjem
|
F
|
6,592
|
Lg
|
5
|
The
Foxglove King
|
Hannah
Witten
|
F
|
12,254
|
Lg
|
8.5
|
A
Dawn of Onyx
|
Kate
Golden
|
F
|
14,017
|
IP/sm
|
11
|
Assistant
to the Villain
|
Hanna
Nicole Maehrer
|
F
|
36,173
|
IP/sm
|
2.5
|
The
Ashes and the Star Cursed King
|
Carissa
Broadbent
|
F
|
101,042
|
IP
|
7
|
Zodiac
Academy, Sorrow and Starlight
|
Caroline
Peckham
Susanne
Valenti
|
F/F
|
34,123
|
Med
|
11.5
|
The
Hurricane Wars
|
Thea
Guanzon
|
F
|
4,383
|
Lg
|
1.5
|
A
Soul of Ash and Blood
|
Jennifer
L Armentrount
|
F
|
41,379
|
IP/sm
|
4
|
The
Hanging City
|
Charlie
N Holmberg
|
F
|
7,738
|
Med
|
3.5
|
The
Coven
|
Harper
L Woods
|
F
|
22,757
|
Med
|
8
|
A
Fire in the Flesh
|
Jennifer
L Armentrout
|
F
|
13,640
|
IP/sm
|
.5
|
Bewitched
|
Laura
Thalassa
|
F
|
6,580
|
IP/sm
|
7
|
Slaying
the Vampire Conqueror
|
Carissa
Broadben
|
F
|
10,602
|
IP/sm
|
6.5
|
Rule
of the Aurora King
|
Nisha
J Tuli
|
F
|
13,587
|
IP/sm
|
7.5
|
A
Game of Gods
|
Scarlett
St Clair
|
F
|
6,237
|
IP/sm
|
3.5
|
Fall
of Ruin and Wrath
|
Jennifer
L Armentrount
|
F
|
18,983
|
IP/sm
|
2
|
Fourth
Wing
|
Rebecca
Yarros
|
F
|
719,631
|
IP/sm
|
6.5
|
Throne
of the Fallen
|
Kerri
Maniscalco
|
F
|
7,061
|
Lg
|
1.5
|
Queen
of Thieves and Chao
|
K
A Tucker
|
F
|
2,247
|
IP/sm
|
2
|
A
Court This Cruel and Lovely
|
Stacia
Stark
|
F
|
9,824
|
IP/sm
|
8
|
|
Average
Ratings per month per book: 9,940
|
21F
|
1,063,630
total ratings
|
4 Lg
3Med
13 IP/ Sm
|
107 months
total
|
Fantasy
|
|
|
|
|
|
A
Day of Fallen Night
|
Samantha
Shannon
|
F
|
20,315
|
Med
|
8.5
|
Ink
Blood Sister Scribe
|
Emma
Torz
|
F
|
20,239
|
Lg
|
5.5
|
The
Fragile Threads of Power
|
V
E Schwab
|
F
|
7,940
|
Lg
|
2
|
Atalanta
|
Jennifer
Saint
|
F
|
9.830
|
Med
|
8
|
The
Adventures of Amina AL-Siraf
|
Sharron
Chakraborty
|
F
|
26,335
|
Lg
|
8.5
|
The
Unmaking of June Farrow
|
Adrienne
Young
|
F
|
10,929
|
Med
|
1
|
Sword
Catcher
|
Cassandra
Clare
|
F
|
4,713
|
Lg
|
1
|
Victory
City
|
Salman
Rushdie
|
M
|
8,201
|
Lg
|
10
|
Bookshops
and Bonedust
|
Travis
Baldree
|
M
|
4,748
|
Med
|
.5
|
Emily
Wilde’s Encyclopaedia of Faeries
|
Heather
Fawcett
|
F
|
40,942
|
Lg
|
11
|
Stone
Blind
|
Natalie
Haynes
|
F
|
30,974
|
Lg
|
2
|
VenCo
Cove
|
Cherie
Dimaline
|
F
|
6,508
|
Lg
|
10.5
|
The
Book that Wouldn’t Burn
|
Mark
Lawrence
|
M
|
8,096
|
Lg
|
6.5
|
Clytemnestra
|
Constanza
Casat
|
F
|
12,532
|
Lg
|
6.5
|
Tress
of the Emerald Sea
|
Brandon
Sanderson
|
M
|
74,180
|
Lg
|
7.5
|
The
Last Tale of the Flower Bride
|
Roshani
Chokshi
|
F
|
15,529
|
Lg
|
0
|
Witch
King
|
Martha
Wells
|
F
|
10,507
|
Lg
|
5.5
|
Hell
Bent
|
Leigh
Bardugo
|
F
|
88,513
|
Med
|
11
|
Starling
House
|
Alix
E Harrow
|
F
|
22,534
|
Lg
|
1.5
|
The
Will of the Many
|
James
Islingto
|
M
|
7,591
|
Med
|
6
|
|
Average
Ratings per month per book: 3,815
Combining
Romancy with fantasy Aver. Rating per month per book: 6,877
|
15F 5M
|
431 156
toal
ratings
|
14 Lg
6 Med
|
113 months
total
|
Science
Fiction
|
|
|
|
|
|
The
Ferryman
|
Justin
Cronin
|
M
|
20,161
|
Lg
|
7
|
System
Collapse
|
Martha
Wells
|
F
|
1,857
|
Lg
|
0
|
I
Keep My Exoskeletons to Myself
|
Marsha
Crane
|
F
|
3,146
|
IP/sm
|
11
|
Deluge
|
Stephen
Markley
|
M
|
2,347
|
Lg
|
10
|
Starter
Villain
|
John
Scalzi
|
M
|
12,481
|
Lg
|
2
|
Translation
State
|
Ann
Leckie
|
F
|
5,547
|
Lg
|
5
|
Light
Bringer
|
Pierce
Brown
|
M
|
20,694
|
Med
|
3
|
In
the Lives of Puppets
|
T
J Klune
|
M
|
40,266
|
Lg
|
7
|
Some
Desperate Glory
|
Emily
Tesh
|
F
|
4,648
|
Lg
|
7
|
Ascension
|
Nicholas
Binge
|
M
|
5,865
|
IP/sm
|
7
|
The
Light Pirate
|
Lilly
Brooks-Dalton
|
F
|
21,684
|
IP/sm
|
11
|
The
Great Transition
|
Nick
Fuller Googin
|
M
|
1,042
|
IP/sm
|
4
|
The
Jinn-Bot of Shantiport
|
Samit
Basu
|
M
|
236
|
Lg
|
2
|
The
Marriage Act
|
John
Marrs
|
M
|
11,074
|
IP/sm
|
11
|
Bridge
|
Lauren
Beukes
|
F
|
811
|
IP/sm
|
3
|
The
Future
|
Naomi
Aldersman
|
M
|
870
|
Lg
|
1
|
Chain-Gang
All-Star
|
Nana
Kwame Adjei-Brenyah
|
M
|
15,061
|
Sm
|
6
|
Children
of Memory
|
Adrian
Tchikovsky
|
M
|
12,942
|
Lg
|
10
|
The
Deep Sky
|
Yume
Kitasei
|
F
|
3,144
|
Med
|
5
|
Land
of Milk and Honey
|
C
Pam Zhang
|
F
|
3,168
|
IP/sm
|
3
|
|
Average
Ratings per month per book: 1,496
|
12 M
8 F
|
187,044
total ratings
|
10 Lg
2 Med
8 IP/sm
|
125 moths
total
|